Trading sentiment in the stock market this week will be guided by quarterly earning announcements from blue-chips such as Infosys and Bajaj Finance, the outcome of India-US trade talks and global cues, analysts said. Markets may on Monday react to the quarterly results of three heavyweights - Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, an expert said.
Stock investors will track the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, Brent crude oil prices, inflation data and the US Fed interest rate decision for further cues this week, analysts said. Tariff-related news would also dictate trends in the equity market, experts noted.
India's smartphone market grew by three per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in volume in the third quarter (Q3) of calendar year 2024, while its value surged by 12 per cent Y-o-Y to reach an all-time record for a single quarter, according to a report by research firm Counterpoint. The value growth was driven by an ongoing premiumisation trend, while the increase in volume was driven by an earlier onset of the festival season compared to the previous year.
Among Sensex firms, Tata Motors rose the most by 3.5 per cent while Adani Ports gained 3.16 per cent. Reliance Industries rose by 2.82 per cent. Eternal, Tech Mahindra, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Hindustan Unilever and Maruti were also among the gainers. However, Bajaj Finserv, Power Grid, Mahindra & Mahindra and HCL Tech were among the laggards.
Among Sensex firms, Bharat Electronics, Eternal, Mahindra & Mahindra, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tata Motors and Power Grid were the gainers. However, Adani Ports, ITC, UltraTech Cement and Titan were among the laggards.
Gold prices advanced Rs 700 to reach a new lifetime high of Rs 91,950 per 10 grams in the national capital on Wednesday on the back of continued buying by jewellers ahead of wedding season, according to the All India Sarafa Association. Besides, increased tensions in the Middle East and concerns about the US economic slowdown have kept the demand for safe-haven assets intact.
Gold prices on Tuesday surged Rs 723 to touch an all-time high of Rs 110,312 per 10 grams in the domestic futures market, tracking strong global cues amid growing expectations of a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week. Traders said weak US labour market data has strengthened the case for monetary policy easing, putting pressure on the dollar and boosting demand for the safe-haven asset.
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The US remains the largest market for IT outsourcing, and for Indian giants TCS, Infosys and Wipro, it contributes around 40 per cent of their top line.
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Gold prices rallied by Rs 630 to a lifetime high of Rs 82,700 per 10 grams in the national capital on Wednesday following persistent buying by jewellers and retailers amid strong global trends, according to the All India Sarafa Association. Rallying for the sixth straight session, gold of 99.5 per cent purity appreciated by Rs 630 to hit a lifetime high of Rs 82,330 per 10 grams.
With the markets scaling new highs, as many as 43 stocks from the Nifty50 index and 27 of the 30 scrips that are part of the S&P BSE Sensex are trading above their respective 200-day moving average (DMA). The 200-DMA is seen as one of the most relevant trend indicators by investors and traders, who believe that stocks and indices trading above this level possess strength and are likely to rally in the short to medium term, while the ones trading below this level are viewed as bearish and expected to see a sell-off. Wipro, UPL, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Hindalco, Infosys, Cipla, and Adani Enterprises are the only stocks from the Nifty50 pack that are still below their respective 200-DMA, the exchange data suggests.
Investors in India's information technology (IT) companies are likely in for more pain ahead as muted earnings for the first quarter of 2025-26 (Q1FY26) play spoilsport at the bourses in the worst-performing sector this year amid macro uncertainties. Investors, analysts suggest, can look for better opportunities in the markets as things stand.
Despite state-owned Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) reporting an improvement in value of new business (VNB) margin in Q1FY25, analysts believe the growth has not been satisfactory in the context of the insurer's medium-term targets on margins. VNB margin is a measure of profitability of life insurance companies. LIC's VNB margin improved by 20 basis points (bps) to 13.9 per cent in Q1FY25 over the same period last year due to a change in the business mix of the insurer.
Trading activity of foreign investors and crude oil prices would also remain in the limelight during the week, experts noted. "This week brings a series of important economic data releases from India and the United States, which are likely to influence market sentiment and central bank outlooks.
Indian information technology (IT) service providers are expected to deliver low single-digit sequential growth in the first quarter (April-June) of 2025-26 (FY26), even as macroeconomic uncertainties continue to persist due to the volatile geopolitical environment.
With the merger between HDFC Bank and HDFC Ltd complete, analysts said the next key monitorable for the Street would be successful resolution of merger-related hiccups, including employee-related churn and roll out of complete banking services across branches. At the bourses, they expect the stock to perform in-line with the benchmark indices in the near-term. "There's usually an initial period of consolidation after a merger as the entities work towards integration.
Ask rediffGURU and PF expert Milind Vadjikar your insurance, stocks, mutual fund and personal finance-related questions.
Among Sensex firms, Maruti zoomed the most by 8.94 per cent. Bajaj Finance rallied over 5 per cent, UltraTech Cement by 3.71 per cent, and Bajaj Finserv by 3.7 per cent. Mahindra & Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever and Trent were also among the gainers. However, ITC was the biggest loser, dropping by 1.26 per cent. Eternal, Tech Mahindra and Larsen & Toubro also declined.
Plans for big bang reforms in the GST regime by Diwali, the Putin-Trump summit and S&P upgrading India's sovereign credit rating are likely to instil optimism in the domestic equity market in the week ahead, analysts said. Besides, trends in global markets and the trading activity of foreign investors would also impact domestic investors' sentiment.
With demand for information-technology (IT) services in North America still sluggish, Europe has become a source of optimism for Indian companies because it is delivering steady gains over the past two years and continuing to outperform in the latest quarter. Yet analysts caution a full-scale revival will require a rebound in the United States (US), particularly in manufacturing, retail, and BFSI (banking, financial services, and insurance), because Europe contributes only about a third of the revenues.
India's most valued company, Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), reported a robust performance in the third quarter of the current financial year (Q3FY25), surpassing analyst expectations. This coupled with positive commentary by brokerages led to the stock of the oil-to-telecom conglomerate surging as much as 4.44 per cent to hit an intraday high of Rs 1,325.1. It settled at Rs 1,301.3 apiece, up 2.57 per cent.
The surge in the market price is also attributed to demand by retail and high-networth individual investors ahead of the IPO.
The combined market capitalisation of the country's top five IT firms that are part of the BSE Sensex is down 24 per cent since January and their valuation has slipped to lowest levels in the past five years.
Equity investors are up for an eventful trading week ahead as the 90-day suspension period of the reciprocal tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump ends on July 9, analysts said, adding that a positive outcome from the trade negotiations could further lift market sentiment, particularly benefiting trade-sensitive sectors.
It is pouring heavily not only in North India, but at Dalal Street too. However, the latter is seeing a flurry of initial public offers (IPOs). After a busy fortnight that ended on July 7 with seven IPOs - IdeaForge Technology, Cyient DLM, PKH Ventures, Pentagon Rubber, Global Pet Industries, Tridhya Tech, and Synoptics Technologies -- four more IPOs will hit the Street this week, including one mainboard IPO of Utkarsh Small Finance Bank. That apart, India's largest securities' depository National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) has filed its draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) for an IPO.
Ola Electric share price strategy: The meteoric rise of Ola Electric share price has left analysts and investors bewildered. Yet, they suggest investors hold on to the stock as it remains a pure "momentum" play. Since its listing on August 9, the stock has surged 92 per cent (till August 19) over its issue price of Rs 76, taking its market capitalisation to a little over Rs 63,000 crore.
The domestic stock market will continue to monitor the Israel-Iran conflict and its impact on global supplies besides prices of crude oil this week, analysts said. Global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would also drive investors' sentiment during the week.
Stock markets declined for the second day in a row on Friday, with the Sensex tumbling 721 points due to heavy selling in financial, IT and oil & gas shares amid persistent foreign fund outflows.
India's BFSI sector is set for robust growth, with hiring projected to rise 8.7 per cent in 2025-26 and touch 10 per cent by 2030, creating nearly 2.5 lakh permanent jobs, a report said on Thursday. This growth in the Banking, Financial Services, and Insurance (BFSI) sector is being driven by rising demand in tier II and III cities, marking a clear shift from metro-centric recruitment.
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Many high-profile IPOs in India since 2021 have destroyed investor wealth due to overvaluation, weak business models, and post-listing disinterest, turning 1 lakh investments into as little as 3,500.
The network cost per tower of Reliance Jio is lower than its rival Bharti Airtel even as the gap between them is narrowing due to the latter cutting costs at a faster pace, analysts said. While the energy cost per tower for both telcos is reducing, Airtel has managed to reduce costs at a faster pace, brokerage firm IIFL Securities said in a research note. "Jio used to enjoy 35 per cent lower network cost per tower, including the right of use (RoU) depreciation and lease finance cost, versus Bharti four years back. This gap has now (FY24) narrowed to 7 per cent," it said.
'This marks a turning point for Paytm, with the regulatory environment looking much clearer than it has been in the last two years.'
Indian refiners are likely to import 2-2.2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil in June - the highest in the last two years and more than the total volumes bought from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, preliminary data by global trade analytics firm Kpler showed.
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Equity investors would track global market trends, inflation data and trading activity of foreign investors for further cues this week, analysts said. Moreover, progress of monsoon and developments related to trade talks would also be monitored by investors, experts noted.
Bajaj Auto - the country's most valuable two-wheeler (2W) company by market capitalisation - met Street expectations in the January-March quarter (Q4) of 2024-25 (FY25) but still ended Friday as the worst performer on the Nifty 50, slipping 3.1 per cent.
'This escalation was definitely not part of Gen Z's plan. It seems now that these external forces were keenly observing the initial developments from the sidelines and jumped into the fray, taking advantage of the situation, finding that the time was suitable for such acts'
Sun Pharma, NTPC, Maruti, Bharti Airtel, Trent and Axis Bank were also among the gainers. However, Tata Motors, Power Grid, Eternal, Bajaj Finserv and Hindustan Unilever were among the laggards.
